Mortgage rates dipped back below 5% this month due largely in part to the European debt crisis. As confidence in the value of the Euro eroded, more investors chose the U.S. dollar instead. With more demand for dollars, the cost of debt (interest rate) dropped. This event has also shown the global recovery is not free-and-clear of roadblocks to complete recovery. However, experts still anticipate rates will increase to between 6% and 6.5% by the end of the year. As the recovery gains increasing traction, the Federal Reserve will need to increase rates to prevent inflation.
Source: Keller Williams Realty, Inc, “This Month in Real Estate,” released 6/7/2010.
While interest rates for conventional loans reached historic lows in recent years, it has been a different story for jumbo loans. Interest rates for jumbo loans shot up as lenders tightened restrictions and steered clear of anything that could be considered somewhat risky. Another factor working against jumbo loans - they are too large for the government to support through the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac.
Understanding Jumbo Loans
First, what constitutes a jumbo loan? Below is a chart that breaks down what it means to be a Conforming Loan, Conforming Jumbo and True Jumbo Loan:
* $729,750 is the upper limit in the most expensive areas.
Limits vary depending on median home prices in local areas.
Recent Changes in Jumbo Loan Interest Rates and Down Payments
The difference between interest rates on conventional loans and jumbo loans has decreased from higher levels seen last year:
* Based on the week of February 25, 2010.
In some cases, the down payment requirements are easing as well, but they often still depend on the level of borrowing – the more the mortgage, the higher the down payment percentage. In New York, mortgage professionals report the following common down payments:
**According to Bank of America’s Jeffrey Appel in Inman News.
Borrowers will still need a good credit score, typically at least 700, evidence of high income, and a sizable bank account.
In Summary
Available credit for the high end will likely help stabilize prices in that sector and boost the overall average sales price. Until now, the high levels of activity in the entry-level price points combined with relatively few sales at the high end have skewed the average price down.
Hindsight is 20/20. Hindsight affords us the opportunity to see “what really happened” versus what we thought was happening at the time. At Keller Williams Realty, we recently took time out at our annual Family Reunion to review 2009 year-end numbers for the national housing market. The data provided clarity and perspective about the market we came through and where we are going.
Five specific categories of data were explored: Home Sales, Home Prices, Inventory, Mortgage Rates and Affordability. Below are highlights from each of the 5 main categories:
Home Sales in Millions
Source: National Association of REALTORS®
Sales increased 5% in 2009, the first annual sales gain since 2005 and the tenth highest annual activity level on record. While it was a difficult year for the housing market, it showed overall signs of improvement.
In the 4th Quarter of 2009, an increase in sales was experienced by all states but California. In contrast, in the 4th Quarter of 2008 only 6 states saw an increase in sales.
Home Prices in Thousands
Source: National Association of REALTORS®
The median home price declined by 12% in 2009.
The reason for the big drop: 1st time home buyers and relatively few jumbo loans (or high-end sales). Distressed homes also accounted for 36% of total sales in 2009. Distressed properties typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.
Some good news:From 1989 to 2000, home prices grew by 3.9% on average - a sustainable trend. Then, from 2000 to 2005, home price appreciation ranged from 7% to 13% - an unsustainable trend. >>>If home prices actually grew by 4% (a sustainable trend) every year from 1989 the median home price today would be $203,105, which is approximately 17% above where we are today. This indicates that homes are currently undervalued and there is room for home prices to realistically increase in the year ahead. Read the rest of this entry»
Due to recent federal changes to their short sale guidelines, “short sales” may start living up more to their name.
A short sale occurs when a lender accepts less than a borrower owes on a loan. As part of the Foreclosure-Prevention Program, the government modified their short sale guidelines to make short sales more attractive alternatives to foreclosures. Short sales can frequently produce higher sales prices for distressed homes and are less harmful to communities than foreclosures. To-date, however, short sales have been cumbersome and difficult to complete.
The changes in guidelines are aimed to help distressed homeowners who are eligible for the loan modification program, but: Read the rest of this entry»
The Miliken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners recently released their 2009 Best-Performing Cities Index and the Fort Collins-Loveland area came in at #22. The ranking is based on the institutes evaluation of 200 large metro areas around the country. Each area was evaluated in the following categories: job, wage, salary and technology growth.
One of the major forces driving Fort Collins-Loveland area’s success is the Northern Colorado Economic Development Corporation (NCEDC), which took shape in 2001. The NCEDC is a 501(C)(6) non-for-profit corporation driven by their mission to create primary jobs and promote economic growth in Larimer County. The corporation has been involved in creating over 3,163 primary jobs in the area since 2004, injecting the economy with $215.17 million in wages. To learn more, you can visit the NCEDC website at: http://www.ncedc.com.
According to Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), 2010 will show a national increase in home sales of 15%. Dr. Yun released his data at the recently held 2009 NAR Conference & Expo in San Diego.
For Northern Colorado, the “IRES Economic & Market Watch Report, 3rd Quarter 2009″ projects that home prices and home sales will remain stable moving from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter of 2009. Larimer County, home to Fort Collins and Loveland, had an average home sale price of $260,500 in the third quarter, with a total of 1,158 homes sold. In Weld County, home to the Greeley metro area, the average price of homes sold was $189,100, with a total of 866 homes sold.
The projected increase in 2010 home sales is in large part credited to the extension of the home buyer tax credit that was recently extended for home sales through August 30, 2010. Keller Williams released a special edition video that details the plan for first-time home buyers as well as existing home owners moving up in the market. You can watch the detailed video at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMzTpn3FvA8
Source: Realtor Magazine, “Yun: 2010 Sales to Rise 15 Percent,” by Robert Freedman, 11/13/2009 http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009111301;
Source: IRES “Economic and Market Watch Report, 3rd Quarter 2009”
Harris Interactive recently released results of their most popular states poll and Colorado came in at #5. Denver tied for the #2 most popular city to live in. The survey asked people where they would like to live now if they didn’t live where they are now. The top state and city picks tend to attract a high volume of tourists, are a place where companies like to have offices/factories and the climate is pleasant. The poll was taken online by 2,498 U.S. adults.
2009 Top 10 States - Where people would like to live apart from their own state
1. California
2. Florida
3. Hawaii
4. Texas
5. Colorado
6. Arizona, North Carolina, Washington (tied)
9. Tennessee
10. Oregon
2009 Top 10 Cities - Where people would like to live apart from their own city
1. New York, NY
2. Denver, CO; San Francisco, CA (tied)
4. San Diego, CA
5. Seattle, WA
6. Chicago, IL
7. Boston, MA
8. Las Vegas, NV
9. Washington, DC
10. Dallas, TX
Affordability - % of Income The percentage of a median family’s income required to make mortgage payments on a median-priced home
Housing affordability continues to be at record highs this year with the added stimulus of the first-time buyer credit. So far this year, payment percentages have been the lowest on record dating back to 1970. A typical mortgage payment on a median-priced home historically has consumed 25% of a middle-income family’s monthly earnings, it’s now taking up only16%. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “As long as home buyers stay within their budget, mortgage payments will be very manageable.”
Source: Keller Williams Realty, Inc., “This Month in Real Estate: September 2009″
In August, a new version of the credit scoring model, called FICO 08, was released to our three major credit bureaus — Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. These modifications will likely raise FICO scores for consumers with a relatively good track record save for a few blemishes, while possibly lowering credit scores for consumers with habitually late payments. Some of the highlights of FICO 08:
For consumers with a relatively good track record: Small missed payments lingering in collections with original amounts of $100 or less will no longer do damage to your credit score. For example, if you missed paying one utility bill three years ago and otherwise have a clean record then your score will likely be less affected by the missed payment. Read the rest of this entry»
Since the beginning of the government foreclosure prevention program, Making Home Affordable, there have been several amendments extending its reach to increasing numbers of struggling homeowners. The latest development now extends the program’s arm to welcome not only mortgages held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac but also FHA.
Preventing foreclosures remains just as important to economic and housing stability as it was when the program first began in March, especially as the most telling indicator of foreclosure levels, the unemployment rate, is likely to remain high into 2010. Helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure remains a key component to continued firm footing for the housing market and economy. This is a good sign with positive implications for home buyers and sellers.
Source: Keller Williams Realty, “This Month in Real Estate,” released 8/18/09.
